President-Elect Donald Trump is preparing to build upon the policy foundations established during his first term, characterized by principles of limited government, states’ rights, and reduced taxation. Experts anticipate a renewed focus on dismantling numerous Biden Administration initiatives across crucial sectors including the environment, immigration, and foreign policy. Many of these shifts could be rapidly enacted through executive orders in the early stages of a second Trump Administration.
This analysis provides a detailed overview of the key policy priorities expected under a second Trump Administration, drawing insights from the Republican Party Platform and publicly stated positions. We will explore potential changes across various sectors, including transportation, environment, healthcare, taxation, energy, immigration, defense, foreign policy/trade, agriculture and food, and education.
Transportation
Trump’s transportation policy is expected to bring significant shifts across various modes, prioritizing deregulation and a less interventionist approach.
-
Aviation: A Trump administration is likely to halt pending aviation regulations, potentially impacting initiatives related to family seating and wheelchair accessibility. Enforcement is expected to become more stringent, focusing solely on clearly codified statutes and regulations, moving away from actions based on regulatory guidance or policy interpretations. We can anticipate a reversal of current policies on airline mergers and international aviation agreements, fostering a more laissez-faire competitive environment and potentially abandoning Biden-era environmental and international aviation initiatives.
-
Drones and Advanced Air Mobility: Building upon the momentum of his first term, drones and Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) are expected to remain a priority. While continuing to advance AAM, the emphasis may shift away from climate benefits of electrification towards promoting American leadership, manufacturing growth, and high-skilled job creation within the U.S.
-
Automotive Policy: A key automotive policy shift will likely involve reversing the Biden Administration’s vehicle emission standards, often criticized by Trump as an “electric vehicle mandate.” Elon Musk’s influence on automotive policy is anticipated. Trump is expected to champion policies supporting U.S. auto manufacturing jobs, potentially opposing vehicles manufactured in China and foreign manufacturing relocations to Mexico. Significant tariffs on imported cars deemed to have an unfair advantage over American-made vehicles are also likely.
-
Autonomous Transportation: While the first Trump administration fostered autonomous vehicle development, a second term may approach this sector with caution due to labor union support. Policies may aim to reinvigorate the Automated Vehicles Comprehensive Plan but with consideration for potential impacts on commercial driver jobs.
-
Rail: Railway policy under Trump is expected to see a rollback of numerous Biden Administration initiatives. Reduced funding for high-speed rail projects and a relaxation of safety regulations, including those concerning hazardous gas transit, crew requirements, and fatigue risk management, are anticipated.
-
Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA): A comprehensive review of the IIJA is highly probable, with the Trump administration likely seeking to curtail aspects deemed as excessive spending. Similar to his first term, President Trump may utilize Executive Orders to streamline permitting processes for federal infrastructure projects by easing regulations under the National Environmental Policy Act, Endangered Species Act, and Clean Water Act.
Environment
Environmental policy under a second Trump administration is predicted to involve significant deregulation and a reversal of Biden-era environmental initiatives.
-
Deregulation and Rollbacks: Aggressive deregulation is expected, potentially requiring the removal of multiple existing regulations for every new regulation proposed. Trump has pledged to halt taxpayer subsidies for Chinese EV battery companies and roll back EV adoption incentives. Furthermore, a ban on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investments and rescinding remaining Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funding are likely policy goals.
-
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): The EPA is expected to be a primary target, potentially facing budget cuts and reduced agency scope and reach. A shift towards “cooperative federalism” with a more permissive approach to environmental regulation of interstate commerce is anticipated. Rollbacks of interregional enforcement initiatives and Environmental Justice programs, including grant funding to environmental organizations, are also likely.
-
Fossil Fuels: Increased domestic oil production and refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are key objectives. Trump aims to expedite drilling permit approvals on public lands and increase permit applications for federal land drilling. The goal is to establish the U.S. as the dominant global energy producer, independent of foreign fuel sources.
-
Job Retention: Climate spending is viewed with skepticism, perceived as detrimental to American jobs. Policy will likely prioritize domestic job retention, potentially through tariffs on companies manufacturing goods overseas.
-
Paris Climate Agreement: Having previously labeled climate change a “hoax,” Trump is expected to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement again, reversing President Biden’s 2021 rejoining of the pact.
-
Reforming Public Health Agencies: Significant reforms to public health agencies like the NIH and CDC are under consideration. This could include streamlining the CDC’s scope, consolidating NIH institutes, and addressing potential conflicts of interest related to external funding sources like FDA user fees and NIH royalties.
Healthcare
Healthcare policy under Trump is expected to revisit key areas, including the Affordable Care Act and prescription drug costs.
-
Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA): Despite previous attempts to repeal the ACA, Trump has indicated intentions to revisit healthcare reform, possibly proposing a less costly alternative, though specific details remain unclear.
-
State-Level Control of Reproductive Health: Following the appointment of Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade during his first term, Trump is expected to continue supporting state autonomy in legislating reproductive health measures.
-
Prescription Drug Costs: Lowering prescription drug costs remains a priority. While critical of the Biden Administration’s approach to Medicare drug price negotiation, Trump has not yet presented alternative strategies beyond previously signed legislation focused on price transparency.
-
Veterans’ Healthcare: Expanding access to private care and cost reduction are central to Trump’s veterans’ healthcare plan. Building upon the VA MISSION Act from his first term, further expansion of community care programs is anticipated.
-
FDA/Public Health: The creation of an “independent” commission to investigate chronic disease increases is a proposed initiative. Alignment with positions advocated by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., including FDA reforms like reducing user fees and removing “chemicals” from food, suggests potential shifts in public health policy.
Taxes
Tax policy under a second Trump administration is expected to focus on extending and expanding the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
-
Business Taxes: Extending expiring TCJA provisions is a priority, with plans to further reduce the corporate income tax rate to 15% (specifically for domestic production). Reinstating the Domestic Production Activities Deduction (former Section 199) to incentivize domestic manufacturing is a potential mechanism.
-
Individual Income Taxes: Making individual tax provisions of the TCJA permanent is desired, potentially offset by increased tariff revenues.
-
Individual Credits, Deductions, and Exemptions: Reinstating the unlimited itemized deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) has been suggested. Additional proposals include exempting Social Security payments, tip income, and overtime pay from income tax, alongside creating deductions for auto loan interest and tax credits for family caregivers.
Energy
Energy policy is anticipated to strongly emphasize fossil fuels, deregulation, and a reduction in renewable energy initiatives.
-
Fossil Fuel Emphasis and Deregulation: A robust emphasis on fossil fuels, extensive regulatory rollbacks, and scaling back renewable energy policies are expected. These measures are intended to lower energy costs, achieve “energy dominance,” and enhance the competitiveness of U.S. industries.
-
Climate Change Policy Reversal: Rescinding Biden administration environmental regulations related to emissions from power plants, vehicles, and energy production, as well as limitations on LNG exports, is likely. Easing restrictions on fossil fuel industries to boost production is also anticipated.
-
Opposition to Climate Agreements: Strong opposition to the Paris Climate Agreement and the Inflation Reduction Act will persist, arguing they hinder energy development and inflate costs. Counteracting environmental lawsuits that impede energy projects is also probable.
-
Energy Costs and Domestic Mining: Lowering consumer energy costs by rolling back fuel and emission standards and offering tax breaks for oil, gas, and coal industries while opposing renewable subsidies is expected. Reducing reliance on foreign nuclear materials through increased domestic mining for critical minerals is also a potential focus.
-
Boosting Domestic Oil and Gas Production: Policies to increase domestic oil and gas production will likely include expanding access to public lands and offshore waters, ending the “pause” on new LNG export permits, reducing regulatory burdens on oil and gas activities, and streamlining infrastructure project permits.
-
Countering Foreign Reliance in Energy Technology: Promoting domestic manufacturing in energy technology and reducing reliance on foreign manufacturing, particularly from China, through incentives for companies to relocate to the U.S. is anticipated.
-
Critical Minerals: Reinvigorating and expanding mining and critical mineral initiatives, crucial for clean technologies like solar energy and lithium batteries, especially to reduce dependence on China, is expected.
Immigration
(The original article mentions immigration but does not detail specific policies. To enhance the article, we would need to research Trump’s stated positions on immigration and integrate them here. For the sake of following the instructions and only expanding on the provided text, this section will remain as in the original, acknowledging it as an area needing further development in a more comprehensive article.)
Defense
Defense policy under Trump is expected to prioritize military modernization and a “peace through strength” approach.
-
Modernization: Military modernization through investments in advanced technologies, such as missile defense systems, and increased defense spending are anticipated. Increased troop pay is also a pledged policy.
-
Alliances: Ensuring allies meet defense obligations and negotiating with Russia are expected foreign policy approaches. While supportive of Israel, a push for a swift end to the ongoing conflict is anticipated. Encouraging Indo-Pacific allies, particularly Taiwan, to take a more active role in their defense is also likely.
-
Industrial Base Revival: Reviving the industrial base to bolster job creation and domestic defense production is a goal, with a focus on domestically manufactured goods. While tariffs are mentioned, specific plans to boost defense production beyond leveraging the Defense Production Act remain to be seen.
-
Critical Infrastructure Protection: Prioritizing the protection of critical infrastructure from cyber threats by elevating security standards and defenses is expected to continue.
Foreign Policy/Trade
Foreign policy and trade under Trump are expected to be characterized by a more nationalistic and transactional approach.
-
Israel and the Middle East: Standing with Israel and seeking to restore peace in the Middle East by strengthening regional alliances are key objectives. While supportive of Israel’s objectives, Trump has shown a willingness to criticize Israeli leadership when deemed necessary.
-
China: A strong stance against China is anticipated, potentially including revoking China’s Most Favored Nation trade status, pursuing economic independence from China, and restricting Chinese real estate acquisitions in the U.S. However, the commitment to defending Taiwan militarily remains ambiguous.
-
Russia and Ukraine: Ending the Russia-Ukraine war swiftly, potentially “on day one,” is a stated goal. This approach might involve curtailing support for Ukraine to pressure a settlement, based on the argument that continued involvement risks escalating the conflict. Criticism of NATO and the financial burden on the U.S. is also expected to persist.
-
Mexico and Canada (USMCA): Renegotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) within its six-year review provision to secure what Trump considers a “better deal,” particularly concerning the automotive industry, is a likely action.
-
Tariffs: Increased tariffs on foreign countries, including universal baseline tariffs, are expected to be implemented with the aim of revitalizing American manufacturing. A preference for bilateral trade agreements over large multilateral deals suggests potential reviews of agreements like KORUS and USMCA.
Agriculture and Food
Agriculture and food policy under Trump could see significant impacts from trade and evolving dietary guidelines.
-
Tariffs and Trade Retaliation: Universal tariffs of 10% to 20%, and higher tariffs on Chinese imports, carry the risk of retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, potentially targeting U.S. food and agriculture exports. Similar to his first term, Trump may utilize USDA funds to compensate farmers affected by trade disputes.
-
Food and Dietary Guidelines: Support for approaches to food policy espoused by figures like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., including limiting pesticide use and addressing “artificial foods,” suggests potential shifts in dietary guidelines. However, these proposals may face substantial opposition from stakeholders within the food and agriculture sectors.
Education
Education policy under a second Trump administration is expected to shift away from Biden-era priorities, emphasizing different aspects of higher education and K-12 schooling.
-
Student Loans: Reversing the Biden Administration’s focus on student loan forgiveness and increased regulation within the Office of Federal Student Aid (FSA) is expected.
-
Higher Education Act (HEA) Reauthorization: Support for congressional action to reauthorize the Higher Education Act (HEA) is likely, potentially including enhanced accountability for higher education institutions and accreditation reform.
-
For-Profit Institutions: A more favorable regulatory environment for for-profit colleges and universities is anticipated.
-
Workforce Development: Strong support for workforce development initiatives, alternative career pathways, and apprenticeships is expected to be a priority.
-
Title IX: Reinstating previous Title IX rules, emphasizing due process protections for those accused of assault, is expected, reversing the Biden administration’s regulations.
-
College Endowments Taxation: Taxation of college endowments may be reconsidered as a revenue source, particularly in the context of extending the TCJA.
-
Affirmative Action and DEI Rollback: Rolling back or eliminating education-based Affirmative Action and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs is anticipated.
-
Education Department Influence Reduction: While dissolving the Education Department is unlikely, efforts to minimize its influence on state-level education matters may be pursued.
-
School Choice and Charter Schools: Strong support for school choice initiatives and the expansion of charter schools at the state level is expected for K-12 education.
For more detailed information or specific inquiries, please consult relevant policy documents and expert analyses.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered legal or policy advice. Policy landscapes are dynamic and subject to change.
