The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made it clear: human activities are accelerating global warming and climate change through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This acceleration manifests in various ways, including rising temperatures, more frequent precipitation and storms, faster ocean warming, and sea level rise, all of which significantly impact communities and ecosystems worldwide. As global temperatures and GHG emissions continue to climb, these climate change impacts will only intensify.
New York State is already experiencing the effects of climate change, as highlighted in reports like Responding to Climate Change in New York State (ClimAID), the National Climate Assessment (2023), and DEC’s Observed and Projected Climate Change in NYS (PDF). These reports, grounded in scientific data, demonstrate that these impacts are not a future threat, but a present reality. To secure a stable future for people, plants, wildlife, and ecosystems, immediate and comprehensive action is crucial, focusing on adapting to current climate change impacts and aggressively reducing GHG emissions.
Rising Temperatures: A Clear and Present Danger
Across the United States, the average temperature has been increasing at an alarming rate. Since the beginning of the 20th century, the average temperature has risen by 0.16°F per decade, and this rate has accelerated to 0.31 to 0.54°F per decade since the 1970s. Certain regions, including the West, Alaska, and the Northeast, have experienced even more pronounced warming.
Alt text: Graph depicting the observed and projected temperature changes in New York State, showcasing the increasing trend over time due to climate change.
In New York, the annual statewide average temperature has increased by 3°F (0.6°F per decade) since 1970. Projections indicate a further rise of up to 3°F by 2080, with the northern parts of the state expected to experience the most significant warming. This increase in annual temperatures is already having far-reaching effects on New York’s communities and ecosystems. The state’s changing climate may no longer be able to sustain the current plant, insect, and wildlife populations, especially in high-elevation areas like the Catskills and Adirondacks. As temperatures rise, these species will likely shift their ranges northward, impacting industries and economies reliant on them, such as fishing, hunting, and tourism.
Winters in the northeastern U.S. are warming at a faster pace than any other season. Over the past century, average winter temperatures have risen by approximately 3°F, spring temperatures by 2°F, and summer and fall temperatures by 1.4°F.
The Impact of Warmer Winters
New York’s winters have warmed three times faster than its summers. These warmer winter temperatures, characterized by fewer days below freezing, result in more winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, reduced snow cover, and earlier spring snowmelt. This shift has significant economic consequences for New York’s winter recreation industry. Reduced snow cover also increases the vulnerability of plants that rely on snow for insulation and wildlife that depend on it for protection from predators. Additionally, less snowfall in winter can lead to drier summer soil conditions, increasing the risk of wildfires. While some areas of New York State may experience increased lake-effect snow in the coming decades due to warmer winters causing less ice cover on Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Finger Lakes, this effect will eventually diminish as temperatures continue to rise and more winter precipitation falls as rain.
Alt text: Illustration depicting the changing trends in winter precipitation in New York, showcasing the shift from snow to rain due to rising temperatures.
Warmer winters also disrupt the transition between winter and spring, affecting the timing of blooming for trees and flowers, which are crucial food sources for migrating and hibernating wildlife. These changes can also impact agriculture by extending the growing season, although this can also lead to challenges such as altered crop types, increased invasive species and weed growth, greater susceptibility to crop diseases, and higher demand for irrigation. Determining the optimal time for tapping maple trees for syrup production, a vital commercial activity in New York, is expected to become more challenging.
These seasonal shifts can also negatively affect natural ecosystems, plant productivity, and forest health. Warmer late-winter and early-spring temperatures can expand the geographic range and population size of invasive insect species that harm native vegetation, such as the emerald ash borer and southern pine beetle. Warmer winters also extend the season for disease-carrying species like ticks and mosquitoes.
Extreme Temperatures and the Urban Heat Island Effect
In addition to rising average temperatures, recent decades have witnessed changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events, such as heat waves and cold waves. The frequency of cold waves has decreased across most of the United States over the last century, while the number and length of heat waves have been increasing since the 1960s. This trend is expected to continue in New York State.
Extreme heat disproportionately impacts urban areas due to the “heat island effect,” where surfaces like roads, parking lots, and buildings absorb and retain heat, resulting in higher temperatures compared to surrounding suburban or rural areas. This increases the risk of heat-related illnesses and death, particularly for vulnerable populations like the elderly. Extreme heat can also put a strain on infrastructure, such as electrical transmission lines, railroad tracks, and airport runways.
Heat waves can also negatively impact agricultural production by stressing crops and livestock, exacerbating drought conditions, and increasing the need for irrigation. As heat waves become more frequent and prolonged, the impacts on agriculture could lead to rising food costs for all New Yorkers. Moreover, prolonged periods of extreme heat increase energy demand for cooling, resulting in higher greenhouse gas emissions and further accelerating warming and climate change.
Precipitation Patterns: More Intense and Frequent
Climate change can influence the intensity, frequency, and type of precipitation a region experiences. As ocean temperatures rise, more water evaporates into the atmosphere, leading to more intense precipitation and high humidity. Total annual precipitation has increased both globally and in the U.S. over the past century.
The northeastern U.S. has experienced a greater increase in heavy precipitation (over 70%) than any other region in the country between 1958 and 2010. This trend is expected to continue in New York, with longer, more frequent, and heavier precipitation events.
Increased precipitation is leading to more widespread flooding in New York, causing costly damage to homes, roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. Wetter growing seasons can harm agricultural production by damaging crops and flooding farmlands, impacting food supplies and costs. Rainfall also contributes to water pollution by washing sediment and chemicals into water bodies, known as stormwater pollution. In severe cases, heavy rainfall can overwhelm stormwater and sewage treatment systems, causing overflows into rivers and streams. Nutrient runoff from fertilized lawns and septic systems has led to an increase in harmful algal blooms (HABs) in many New York water bodies, which are exacerbated by warmer water temperatures.
Sea Level Rise: A Growing Threat to Coastal Communities
Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most direct and observable effects of climate change in New York. Warming oceans cause thermal expansion and the melting of land-based ice, both of which contribute to SLR. Along the mid-Atlantic coast, sea levels are rising three to four times faster than the global average.
The Atlantic coast is particularly vulnerable to SLR due to its flat terrain and low elevation, posing a significant risk to coastal ecosystems and the millions of people living in urban areas in coastal floodplains. In New York, where over half of the residents live in coastal communities, SLR is a critical issue. Higher water levels from SLR are causing high-tide flooding in coastal and inland communities that were not previously affected, and intensifying storm surges that threaten homes and infrastructure. Natural ecosystems like wetlands, which help buffer inland areas from storm surges, are also at risk.
Sea levels along New York’s coast and in the Hudson River have already risen by more than a foot since 1900 (about 1.2 inches per decade). The tidal coasts of Long Island, New York City, and the lower to mid-Hudson River are particularly vulnerable to future SLR.
Alt text: Table showing sea level rise projections for different regions of New York State, indicating the expected increase in sea levels over time under various scenarios.
Mitigating and Adapting to Climate Change: A Call to Action
To minimize the vulnerability to the current and future impacts of climate change, immediate action is required. Mitigating future climate change by rapidly reducing and eventually eliminating GHG emissions is essential for avoiding the worst-case scenarios. However, addressing current climate change impacts requires more than just reducing GHGs. Planning and implementing adaptation and resilience measures are crucial for reducing risks and vulnerabilities, building adaptive capacity, and identifying ways to take advantage of any benefits of climate change. By improving our ability to understand, anticipate, and prepare for climate change impacts, we can reduce community vulnerability and risk. New York State agencies and local governments are already taking progressive action to mitigate and adapt to climate change, striving to become more resilient to its impacts.
